City-scale integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation

Worldwide, cities are faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a state in which their greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and they are well adapted to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing understanding of the synergies and conflicts in the objectives of mitigation and adaptation. These interactions are no more vivid than in urban areas, where they play out through land use, infrastructure systems and the built environment. Urban decision makers need to understand the implications of these interactions and the potential influences of future global changes. With these decision makers in mind, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research has for the last three years been developing an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) which seeks to simulate socio-economic change, climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the 21 st century. The research is focussed upon London, UK, a city that has taken a lead role in the UK and globally with respect to climate protection. In this paper we describe the concept and various components within the UIAF and summarise some of the insights that have been garnered from this novel integrated analysis. INTRODUCTION Responding to climate change by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change is placing new and complex demands upon urban decision makers. Against a background of rapid socio-economic change, decision makers are now called upon to develop strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Targets for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions are now urgent and imply major reconfiguration of urban energy systems, transport and the built environment. Meanwhile, adaptation of urban areas requires integrated thinking that encompasses a whole range of urban functions. The climate drivers that adaptation is responding to will